During spring season in the autonomous province of South Tyrol frost events can cause major damage to fruit crops, which are essential to the regional agriculture and economy. Water sprinklers may prevent damage under particular local atmospheric conditions determined by air temperature (Tair), wet-bulb temperature (Twb) and wind speed (v). The aim of this thesis is to create statistical models that provide binary and ordered probabilistic forecasts of these variables for the forthcoming 24 hours to assist in keeping the cost of such events to a minimum.
The data for the three predictands comes from the automatic weather station
in Schlanders covering the months Feb-Apr from 2010 to 2014. The frequency of Tair below